• The Trump administration seem to be serious about tariffs
  • Market is still pricing this in
  • Market needs to be lower for Fed to step in
  • Other signs to watch are for deals to start to get made and selective tariffs to be rolled back
  • Look for buying opportunities in US focused stocks
  • China may be cheap for a reason
  • Risk-off assets should be Gold and TIPS as inflation may remain a little sticky
  • USD could sell off in the near term, though this may be an opportunity to get long for the next move

surfmacro