• Tarriffs are not just a negotiating tool for Trump
  • Trump has wanted to bring manufacturer back to the US for decades
  • Tarriffs are a way to do this while lowering the deficit and keeping tax credits
  • Stock market is underestimating this, particularly the largest stocks in the S&P500
  • In the short term this is distrupive means growth could slow, so he is bullish bonds
  • Medium-term, building manufacturing is bullish for US growth

surfmacro